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Climate change to affect grape industry: study
[ Research Review 0307 : ]
By Matthew Johnston
Climate change will dramatically alter the growing season for Australian grapes and affect the wine styles produced here according to new University of Melbourne and CSIRO research.
The research, which drew wide print, online and broadcast media coverage, was conducted by PhD student Leanne Webb in the University’s Faculty of Land and Food Resources and supervised by climate experts at the University of Melbourne and CSIRO.
Ms Webb, a former viticulturist, has found that in coming years grape growers can expect to see rising temperatures which will cause:
• a shift in budburst dates;
• a shorter growing season; and
• earlier harvest dates.
“Climate change will impact on the Australian wine industry and there will be winners and losers.
“Grape growers will need to adapt. Without adaptation the overall impact of changes will be decreased grape quality and consequently lower grape crop gross returns,” she warns.
Ms Webb’s research, supervised by Professor Snow Barlow in the University’s Schoool of Agriculture and Food Systems and the leader of the CSIRO Climate Impact and Risks team, Dr Penny Whetton, utilised climate change projections developed by CSIRO for the year 2030 and 2050.
A range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios and climate models were used to determine the sensitivity of environmental impacts to future grape growing possibilities. As expected, higher emissions resulted in greater impacts.
Temperatures in most Australian wine regions are projected to increase by between 0.3 to 1.7 degrees Celsius by 2030. Modelling the effect of this temperature increase shows that grape quality could be reduced in some regions by 12 to 57 per cent compared to current conditions – if no adaptive measures are implemented.
For the purposes of the study, grape quality was measured by grape price paid at the weighbridge though other quality measures such as red grape colour and beneficial flavour components were also linked to climate.
Ms Webb says the wine industry is particularly vulnerable to climate change because of a special dependence on links between regional climate and wine styles.
“Addressing the scope of these impacts now will allow the industry to prepare strategically for projected warmer and drier climates,” says Ms Webb.
Reporting on the findings in the Wine Industry Journal, Ms Webb says the impact of projected greenhouse gas-induced climate change will vary from region to region.
“The cropping calendar will change. With earlier harvest in a warmer climate, the temperature of the ripening period in some regions will become too warm to produce balanced wines from some or maybe all grape varieties growing there now,” she says.
According to Ms Webb the obvious adaptive response to global warming appears to be relocating existing varietal plantings to cooler regions. Potential southerly and coastal growing zones have been identified as a part of the study.
She says choosing grapevine varieties suited to a changing climate should become part of any vineyard establishment strategy.
“For example the suitability for planting varieties that are best suited to a cool climate such as Pinot Noir or Sauvignon Blanc may be reduced in most parts of Australia, though may increase in Tasmania,” she says.
“The industry may need to breed grape varieties to suit these warmer climates.”
Ms Webb also says vineyard demand for irrigation water is expected to increase in most regions, and that vulnerability of the industry may vary depending on water availability.
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